Backgammon Match Equity Table (MET): How to Use It in 2026

Match equity is the foundation of all serious match play decisions in backgammon. It tells you, at any score in a match, your probability of winning the match overall. Understanding match equity — and the Match Equity Table (MET) that quantifies it — transforms your cube decisions from guesswork into precise calculation. Every competitive backgammon player needs to know these numbers.

Key Takeaways

Match equity is your probability of winning the overall match from any given score position
The Match Equity Table (MET) gives pre-calculated equity values for every score combination
At equal scores, match equity is always 50% — you're even
The closer you are to winning the match, the more equity you have
Cube decisions in match play are made by comparing match equity before and after cube actions
The Crawford Rule creates special equity situations: post-Crawford games have different cube strategy

What Is Match Equity?

In a money game, equity is straightforward: every game has the same value. In match play, games have different values depending on the score. A game when you lead 4-away/1-away (one game from winning) is worth more than a game at the start of a match.

Match equity is the percentage chance you have of winning the overall match from a given score. It accounts for:

How many points each player needs to win
The value of each possible game outcome (single win, gammon, backgammon) from that score
The Crawford Rule’s effect on specific game scores

The Match Equity Table

The MET shows match equity as a percentage for the player who needs fewer points (or is leading). Scores are shown as points-away (how many points each player needs to win).

Standard MET (Abbreviated)

Score (you-away / opp-away)	Your Match Equity
1-away / 1-away	50%
2-away / 1-away	30%
1-away / 2-away	70%
2-away / 2-away	50%
3-away / 2-away	40%
2-away / 3-away	60%
3-away / 3-away	50%
4-away / 3-away	43%
3-away / 4-away	57%
4-away / 4-away	50%
5-away / 4-away	45%
4-away / 5-away	55%
5-away / 5-away	50%
7-away / 4-away	39%
4-away / 7-away	61%

The full MET extends to any match length. Most competitive players memorise the key values up to 7-point matches.

Key Values to Memorise

Scenario	Your Equity	Why It Matters
1-away / 2-away (Crawford)	~70%	High equity even 1 game from winning
2-away / 1-away	~30%	One game from elimination
2-away / 2-away	50%	Even match, cube at 2 is critical
1-away / 1-away	50%	One game for the match — everything is on the line

How Match Equity Affects Cube Decisions

The doubling cube changes match equity. When you double, your opponent can:

Pass — You gain the current game’s equity; they lose that portion of match equity
Take — The cube doubles the game’s value; equity shifts based on win probability

The Basic Cube Calculation

To decide whether to double and whether to take, compare match equity at different outcomes:

Should you double? Double when your match equity after the opponent takes is higher than your match equity if you don’t double.

Should your opponent take? Take when match equity after taking > match equity after dropping (which gives you the game win).

Example: 2-away / 2-away (Cube at 1)

From 2-away/2-away with the cube at 1:

If you win this game, you lead 2-away/1-away (opponent’s equity falls to ~30%)
If your opponent wins, you’re 1-away/2-away (your equity falls to ~30%)
Match equity is exactly 50%

Doubling to 2 and winning puts them at 1-away (match over — 100%) Doubling to 2 and losing puts you at 1-away/2-away from opponent’s perspective

This creates very aggressive cube action at 2-away/2-away — the cube is powerful here and correct cube use is crucial.

Neil’s Numbers

Neil’s Numbers are a simplified set of match equity values named after Neil Kazaross that are easy to remember and accurate enough for practical play. They describe the equity advantage of being ahead in a match at common scores:

Lead	Approximate Equity
1-away vs 2-away	70% / 30%
1-away vs 3-away	75% / 25%
1-away vs 4-away	80% / 20%
2-away vs 3-away	60% / 40%
2-away vs 4-away	63% / 37%
3-away vs 4-away	57% / 43%

These numbers are approximations — full MET values are slightly different — but they’re accurate enough for most in-match cube decisions.

Post-Crawford Equity

After the Crawford game (the no-cube game when one player reaches match point), the match enters post-Crawford play. The trailing player should immediately double at the start of every game because:

They’re losing the match without winning this game anyway
The cube gives the leading player a decision (take/pass) that changes match equity
Every game in post-Crawford must be doubled — it’s automatic

Post-Crawford Equity Table

Trailing player needs	Correct opening action	Double timing
1 (would win match)	N/A — cube not used in Crawford	—
2-away	Double immediately	Turn 1
3-away	Double immediately (may need gammon)	Turn 1
4-away	Double immediately (needs gammon or better)	Turn 1

From 2-away post-Crawford, doubling immediately is almost always correct — the leader’s equity with a pass is already high, so forcing the decision costs little.

Gammon Values in Match Play

Unlike money games, gammons in match play have different values depending on the score. At some scores, a gammon is worth significantly more than a simple win; at others, the difference is minimal.

When Gammons Matter Most

Score (you-away)	Gammon Bonus (vs single win)
4-away or more	Significant — gammon may skip 2 points of equity
3-away	Moderate — gammon wins match if 3-away going to 1-away
2-away	Single win wins match — gammon has no extra value
1-away (Crawford)	Gammon has some post-match value in longer formats only

Practical Rule

When you’re 2-away, winning a gammon doesn’t help you more than a single win (you’ve won the match either way). This removes all gammon pressure at 2-away, changing how you should play positions that risk losing a gammon back.

Common Match Equity Mistakes

Mistake	Correct Play
Doubling at 2-away/2-away too aggressively	Cube at 2-away/2-away changes equity dramatically — be precise
Ignoring gammon value in early games of a long match	Early in a match, gammons have full money-game-like value
Not doubling post-Crawford immediately	Every game should be doubled on turn 1 post-Crawford
Playing for gammon when 2-away	Single win ends the match — gammon risk is uncompensated
Applying money game equity at unequal match scores	Different scores change cube take/pass points significantly

Learning the MET

Most competitive players approach the MET in stages:

Memorise 50% positions — All equal scores (1v1, 2v2, 3v3) are exactly 50%
Memorise key asymmetric values — 2v1 (30/70), 3v2 (40/60), 4v3 (43/57)
Use software — XG and GNU Backgammon show match equity after every move
Study post-Crawford positions — These have the most unusual cube dynamics
Practice match play — Online matches on Galaxy or FIBS build intuition faster than memorisation

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most important match equity value to know?

2-away/1-away (30%/70%) is arguably the most critical — it describes the match situation most players encounter regularly and where cube decisions are most counter-intuitive.

Where can I find a full Match Equity Table?

Full METs are available in XG (eXtreme Gammon), GNU Backgammon, and published in reference books including Backgammon Bootcamp by Walter Trice. BGonline.org also hosts reference tables.

Does match equity change during a game?

No — match equity is calculated per-game from the score. Within a game, you track game equity (win probability for this game). The two combine to give overall match equity at any point.

Is match equity used in money games?

No. In money games, all games have equal value. Match equity is a concept specific to match play.

Can I learn match equity without memorising the whole table?

Yes. Neil’s Numbers give you sufficient approximations for most practical decisions. Full memorisation of the table is useful for the top level but not required for strong club play.